The concept of rational expectations has played a hugely important role in economics over the years. Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this book makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart. The accounts of the 'founding fathers' of the models themselves are also presented here for the first time. The authors trace the development of different approaches to expectations from the likes of Hayek, Morgenstern, and Coase right up to more modern theorists such as Friedman, Patinkin, Phelps and Lucas. The startling conclusion that there was no 'Rational Expectations Revolution' is articulated, supported and defended with impressive clarity and authority. A necessity for economists across the world, this book will deserve its place upon many an academic bookshelf.

The purpose of this book is to describe the intellectual process by which Real Business Cycle models were developed. The approach taken focuses on the core elements in the development of RBC models: (i) building blocks, (ii) catalysts, and (iii) meta-syntheses. This is done by detailed examination of all available unpublished variorum drafts of the key papers in the RBC story, so as to determine the origins of the ideas. The analysis of the process their discovery is then set out followed by explanations of the evolution and dissemination of the models, from first generation papers through full blown research programs. This is supplemented by interviews and correspondence with the individuals who were at the center of the development of RBC models, such as Kydland, Prescott, Long, Plosser, King, Lucas and Barro, among others. This book gets stright to the heart of the debates surrounding RBC models and as such contributes to a real assessment of their impact on modern macroeconomics. The volume, therefore, will interest all scholars looking at macroeconomics as well as historians of economic thought more generally.

Before his untimely death in 2000, the brilliant young Israeli economic historian Klug conducted a thorough survey into the different theories of international trade. The results of this are now available here for the first time with an introduction from Warren Young and Michael Bordo.

Utilizing the inter-temporal open economy model as a case study, Theories of International Trade illuminates the phenomenon of recurrence and the problem of recurring doctrines in economic thought and analysis. This compelling book will be of interest to scholars in the history of economic thought, and to international economists in general.

Before his untimely death in 2000, the brilliant young Israeli economic historian Klug conducted a thorough survey into the different theories of international trade. The results of this are now available here for the first time with an introduction from Warren Young and Michael Bordo.

Utilizing the inter-temporal open economy model as a case study, Theories of International Trade illuminates the phenomenon of recurrence and the problem of recurring doctrines in economic thought and analysis. This compelling book will be of interest to scholars in the history of economic thought, and to international economists in general.

The concept of rational expectations has played a hugely important role in economics over the years. Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this book makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart. The accounts of the 'founding fathers' of the models themselves are also presented here for the first time. The authors trace the development of different approaches to expectations from the likes of Hayek, Morgenstern, and Coase right up to more modern theorists such as Friedman, Patinkin, Phelps and Lucas.

The startling conclusion that there was no 'Rational Expectations Revolution' is articulated, supported and defended with impressive clarity and authority. A necessity for economists across the world, this book will deserve its place upon many an academic bookshelf.

The purpose of this book is to describe the intellectual process by which Real Business Cycle models were developed. The approach taken focuses on the core elements in the development of RBC models: (i) building blocks, (ii) catalysts, and (iii) meta-syntheses. This is done by detailed examination of all available unpublished variorum drafts of the key papers in the RBC story, so as to determine the origins of the ideas. The analysis of the process their discovery is then set out followed by explanations of the evolution and dissemination of the models, from first generation papers through full blown research programs. This is supplemented by interviews and correspondence with the individuals who were at the center of the development of RBC models, such as Kydland, Prescott, Long, Plosser, King, Lucas and Barro, among others.

This book gets stright to the heart of the debates surrounding RBC models and as such contributes to a real assessment of their impact on modern macroeconomics. The volume, therefore, will interest all scholars looking at macroeconomics as well as historians of economic thought more generally.

This book provides a unique historical perspective on expectations in economic theory, and applications of expectations models in economic history. Based on papers presented at the 2017 Thomas Guggenheim Conference, it brings together the work of economists, historians of economics, and economic historians on issues and events concerning expectations in economics and economic history. The contributions address: (i) the history of expectations models; (ii) growth, expectations and political economy; (iii) controversies regarding expectations methods and models; (iv) expectations in theory and reality; and (v) expectations in economic history. The book opens with a lecture by Thomas Guggenheim Prize winner Duncan Foley on the evolution of expectations in modern economic thought. The remaining content is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on the utilization of expectations in the "ancient" and "meso" periods of high theory, i.e., from Smithian to Keynesian approaches. The papers cover topics such as "modern" applications of expectations in both "Tobinesque-Phillips" and "Harrodian-Solowian" contexts, and the debate between Friedmanite and Keynesian approaches to expectation formation. In turn, the last part presents essays on the role of economic expectations in connection with historical events and contexts, ranging from the early 20th century to World War II, and on the application of expectations theory to hyperinflation and stabilization, taking Israel as a case study.

This book illustrates the role of international economic advisors in the development of Israel's economic policies. Based on extensive archival and historical research, it presents case studies on the policy impacts of the world-renowned advisors Michal Kalecki, Abba Lerner, Richard Kahn, Milton Friedman, Herbert Stein and Stanley Fischer. The authors evaluate the contributions of these advisors to policy developments in various fields, including international trade and capital flows, exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy, industrial policy and labor relations. Readers will discover a wealth of previously unpublished information on these advisors' activities, perspectives on policy and interactions with policymakers and the public. Using the Israeli experience as a guide, the authors subsequently derive general hypotheses regarding the conditions that are conducive to the success of economic advisors.

The impetus for the conference that was the basis for this volume emanated from the influence of two brilliant minds-Egon Sohmen and Adam Klug, who both died at an early age, leaving their families and the professions of economics and economic history with major voids. In the course of research on the origins of Open Economy Macroeconomics, the significant contributions of Egon Sohmen came to the fore. After correspondence with some of those involved in the early development of the Open Economy Macromodel, we turned to Adam Klug for his views on the matter-as he had dealt with the history of intertemporal trade models in his Ph. D. thesis. And it was Adam who suggested the idea of a conference bringing together economists and economic historians. At this point we want to acknowledge the very generous grant from the Egon Sohmen Foundation and the active participation of Dr. Helmut Sohmen and Mrs. Renee Sohmen at the conference. We also want to thank Prof. Sir Aaron Klug, Nobel Laureate, and the Klug family for their support and the financial contribution of the Adam Klug Memorial Lecture Fund at Ben Gurion University. Other institutions that contributed to the conference were the Gianni Foundation; Bank of Israel; University of North Carolina; Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Science and Aharon Meir Center for Banking, Bar Ilan University; Department of Economics and Faculty of Social Science, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.

In the centennial year of the birth of Sir John Cockcroft, first master of my Cam bridge College, Churchill, and the first man to split the atomic nucleus by artificial means, it is indeed relevant to consider the outcome of his efforts at developing atomic power. From the earliest days of the construction of Calder Hall-the first nuclear power station in Britain-and the establishment of the British Atomic Re search Center at Harwell, and the Chalk River Nuclear Station in Canada, through the "Windscale" nuclear accident in Britain, up to the present, when some 20% of UK energy is derived from nuclear power, the Cockcroft legacy is felt. As the British historian Mark Goldie put it, in the "pure and sanguine 1950s," Cockcroft had almost absolute "faith in 'peaceful atoms' and in the boundless, almost cost free, energy that atoms would soon produce" (Goldie, 1997, p. 21). But, as the eminent economist Frank Hahn recalled, "the only failing Cockcroft had" was "that he wasn't up to much in economics. " Indeed, Hahn recalled that he "had to explain" to Cockcroft "the economic notion of optimum durability" as it related to the "interest rate" in the context of building Churchill College with "hand-made bricks. " After his explana tion, as Hahn recalled "Cockcroft smiled and proceeded to order more hand-made bricks" (Hahn, 1997, p. 27).

This book combines historical and policy-oriented perspectives on the relevance of the Keynesian approach for economic theory, policy, and crisis analysis. The first part focuses on historical, theoretical, and methodological issues, and puts them in context with current developments. The second part focuses on the application of the Keynesian approach to modeling the economy, policy-making, and analyzing the ongoing crisis of the early 21st century. Bringing together contributions by leading macroeconomists such as Laidler, Cukierman, Colander and Boyer, and leading historians of economics such as Hollander, Boianovsky, Marcuzzo, Dimand, Witztum, Young, deVroey and Arnon, the book offers a comprehensive overview of Keynesian economics today. One of the book's most essential features are the commentaries on the papers, which promote a cross-fertilization between macroeconomists and historians of economics, providing, in conjunction with the papers themselves, a balanced outlook on the current relevance of Keynesian economics.

The Open Economy Macromodel: Past, Present And Future has two main objectives. The first is to assess the state of play of the Open Economy Macromodel by bringing together those who developed it with those who apply it today. The second is to assess possible directions for its future development.

The volume is divided into three parts. Part one focuses on the models, men, and institutions involved in the development of the international macroeconomic model. In this section, the contributors examine the two monetary approaches to the balance of payments, as well as the relationship between long-term fluctuations in real exchange rates and inflation. Part two deals with the present state of the models by looking at Robert Mundell's theory of optimum currency areas (OCAs) and its relationship with key currencies. The chapters in this section also consider the impact of exchange rate variability on labor markets, as well as the interactions between theoretical developments and real-world behavior in the open economy macromodel. The third and last part of this volume provides a perspective on the future by looking at alternate models and institutional perspectives. Several contributors examine the relationship between asset prices, the real exchange rate, and unemployment in a small economy via what they call "a medium-run structuralist perspective." The future of institutional structures necessary to conduct international economic policy is the subject of the last chapters in part three of the volume.

IS-LM is perhaps the prime example of `cognitive dissonance' in economics, and is problematic to many economists. On the one hand, the IS-LM model is still taught by many academic economists or they use it to derive the AD-AS approach. On the other hand, the same economists realize the limitations of the basic IS-LM model and would not now use it for policy analysis, as they did in the past. The distinction between pedagogical and analytical efficacy is made by all the authors in this volume regarding the IS-LM model. Indeed, even those who would reject using the model for modern policy analysis still see the basic model as useful for teaching purposes. Moreover, in an augmented form, some of the authors in this volume would even see fit to use IS-LM for modern policy analysis. As will be seen, therefore, the IS-LM model is `not yet dead'. Rather, the model's `plasticity' has enabled it to undergo a metamorphosis into augmented form, enabling its continuing utilization in economics accordingly.

In the centennial year of the birth of Sir John Cockcroft, first master of my Cam bridge College, Churchill, and the first man to split the atomic nucleus by artificial means, it is indeed relevant to consider the outcome of his efforts at developing atomic power. From the earliest days of the construction of Calder Hall-the first nuclear power station in Britain-and the establishment of the British Atomic Re search Center at Harwell, and the Chalk River Nuclear Station in Canada, through the "Windscale" nuclear accident in Britain, up to the present, when some 20% of UK energy is derived from nuclear power, the Cockcroft legacy is felt. As the British historian Mark Goldie put it, in the "pure and sanguine 1950s," Cockcroft had almost absolute "faith in 'peaceful atoms' and in the boundless, almost cost free, energy that atoms would soon produce" (Goldie, 1997, p. 21). But, as the eminent economist Frank Hahn recalled, "the only failing Cockcroft had" was "that he wasn't up to much in economics. " Indeed, Hahn recalled that he "had to explain" to Cockcroft "the economic notion of optimum durability" as it related to the "interest rate" in the context of building Churchill College with "hand-made bricks. " After his explana tion, as Hahn recalled "Cockcroft smiled and proceeded to order more hand-made bricks" (Hahn, 1997, p. 27)."

The 800 pound gorilla in the room of macroeconomics is the question of why the overlapping generations model didn’t become the central workhorse model for macroeconomics. Introduced in 1958 by Paul Samuelson, the model postulates an infinite number of finite-lived families. This is in stark contrast to the more dominant neoclassical growth model, which is based on the assumption that real economies are populated by a finite number of dynastic families. Despite the greater realism of the former model and the inherent implausibility of the assumptions underlying the growth model, the growth model has become dominant. The authors here explore the co-evolution of the two models to shed light on why this happened, spanning the entire post-WWII era.

This book examines the origins of the IS-LM model, one of the most significant innovations in the history of economic thought. It shows that the complete IS-LM model, including the equations and diagram, was produced by a group of economists who contributed their respective mathematical models of Keynes's General Theory, including Champernowne, Reddaway, Harrod, and Meade, not to mention Hicks. Furthermore, the book discusses the implications of newly discovered archival material, including a previously overlooked document showing that John Maynard Keynes himself was the first to present the IS-LM model equations in a lecture he gave on December 4, 1933. It focuses on the implications of this material in terms of understanding the evolution of Keynes's approach from 1933 to 1937, later interpreters of his General Theory, and the ongoing debate between Keynesians and Post-Keynesians on the nature of his system. Given the revelations it presents, this book will transform the profession's understanding of the origins of the IS-LM model and modern macroeconomics.

This book examines the origins of the IS-LM model, one of the most significant innovations in the history of economic thought. It shows that the complete IS-LM model, including the equations and diagram, was produced by a group of economists who contributed their respective mathematical models of Keynes's General Theory, including Champernowne, Reddaway, Harrod, and Meade, not to mention Hicks. Furthermore, the book discusses the implications of newly discovered archival material, including a previously overlooked document showing that John Maynard Keynes himself was the first to present the IS-LM model equations in a lecture he gave on December 4, 1933. It focuses on the implications of this material in terms of understanding the evolution of Keynes's approach from 1933 to 1937, later interpreters of his General Theory, and the ongoing debate between Keynesians and Post-Keynesians on the nature of his system. Given the revelations it presents, this book will transform the profession's understanding of the origins of the IS-LM model and modern macroeconomics.